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Jump in Victoria gas prices could just be the beginning 

By Nikhil Nikhil

Fuel prices across Greater Victoria have risen sharply in recent days, reflecting a mix of regional supply issues and global market pressures. David Scoones, an associate professor of economics at the ̽��ϵ��, says several factors are driving the increase of gas price. “There isn’t a lot of competition here, so prices tend to move quickly in the same direction,” Scoones said, noting that limited suppliers and the region’s geographic isolation contribute to synchronized price changes.

On Feb. 20, gas prices across Greater Victoria jumped to as high as 181.9 cents per litre, continuing an upward trend that has unfolded over the past several weeks. According to GasBuddy, major retailers including Petro-Canada, Chevron, and Esso are posting prices around $1.81 per litre, while discount outlets such as Costco and Centex list prices between $1.59 and $1.67. Greater Victoria relies heavily on refineries in Washington state for gasoline, meaning local prices are closely tied to the U.S. West Coast fuel market. The British Columbia Utilities Commission (BCUC) says retail pump prices in B.C. are largely driven by wholesale market prices in the Pacific Northwest, crude oil costs, refinery expenses and retail margins.

Recent refinery maintenance and outages, along with reports of a disruption affecting a segment of the Olympic Pipeline, have tightened fuel supply in the region, contributing to price increases. Scoones said prices often rise in late winter and early spring as refineries transition to summer-grade gasoline, which is more expensive to produce due to environmental requirements. “Winter fuel is cheaper than spring and summer fuel,” Scoones said. “Producers begin factoring in those higher costs around this time of year.”

The upward trend began in February. On Feb. 2, prices averaged about $1.47 per litre. By Feb. 9, they had climbed to roughly $1.57, before rising again the following morning to about $1.67. Data suggests motorists should expect further increases, with some projections indicating prices could approach $2 per litre later this spring. Beyond regional supply issues, global geopolitical tensions can influence fuel prices through the worldwide oil market, Scoones said. He pointed to concerns about potential conflict near the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments. Even the threat of disruption can drive oil prices higher as markets react to anticipated supply risks. Because oil is traded in U.S. dollars, fluctuations in the Canadian dollar also affect local prices. A weaker Canadian dollar makes imported fuel more expensive, while a stronger dollar can soften price increases. Scoones added that gas prices tend to rise quickly but decline more slowly. “Prices tend to leap up but drift down slowly,” he said, explaining that retailers respond quickly to rising costs but lower prices gradually as markets stabilize. Higher fuel prices can strain household budgets and increase operating costs for businesses that rely on transportation, including tradespeople and delivery services. While price increases can encourage fuel efficiency and alternative transportation, Scoones noted many residents have limited options due to commuting distances or job requirements. Fuel prices are largely driven by global markets, leaving governments with limited ability to control costs. Reducing fuel taxes is one option, but Scoones said those taxes fund transportation infrastructure and public services. Instead, long-term solutions may include improving transit options, reducing congestion and supporting electric vehicle adoption. Drivers experienced similar price levels last year. Data from Statistics Canada shows Victoria’s monthly average gasoline price was about $1.75 per litre in early January 2025, compared with approximately $1.47 per litre in January 2026. Scoones emphasized that identical prices across gas stations do not necessarily indicate price fixing. “If they were conspiring, they’d set the same price, but competitors often end up at the same price too,” he said, noting that retailers mirror one another in response to shared supply costs. With prices continuing to climb, commuters and businesses alike may feel the strain in the weeks ahead.